Model-Based Analysis of Future Global Transport Demand

Transport models are utilized to analyze the transition towards a low-carbon and sustainable future of transportation. Within these analyses, trends in transport demand serve as a crucial parameter. To address this, a cluster-based transport model was developed to estimate future global transport demand on a national level, encompassing both domestic and international transportation, extending until the year 2050. The transport demand was divided into passenger and freight, which were further split into road, rail, marine, and aviation sectors. According to the available transport-related data, the most influential factors on transport demand are gross domestic product per capita and urban population. Model results show an increase in the total passenger and freight transport demand to 183 trillion passenger-km and 395 trillion ton-km in 2050, respectively. This corresponds to a tripling of transport demand compared to 2020, primarily driven by the more significant rise in developing countries compared to developed ones.